The US Department of Defense's (DoD) FutureG program has made a bold move by backing Cohere Technologies, a company championing orthogonal time frequency space (OTFS) technology. This decision could potentially disrupt the mobile industry, particularly the giants Ericsson and Nokia, who have heavily invested in orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) technology. The DoD's leader, Tom Rondeau, has signaled his preference for OTFS, which is about four times more accurate than OFDM for integrated sensing and communication (ISAC) services. This choice is significant as it could lead to a substantial investment in equipping mobile sites across the US with the required technology, benefiting major operators like AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon. However, the challenge lies in overcoming the industry's inertia and the resistance of the incumbents to a shakeup. Rondeau believes that the OCUDU initiative, which seeks to replace proprietary software with open-source code, can succeed where earlier 'open RAN' initiatives failed. The OCUDU project, comprising a full reference stack built by two startups, is already receiving positive feedback from the industry. Cohere's OTFS technology, which is compatible with OCUDU, could be a game-changer for the mobile industry. The company has worked to 'air gap' its technology, separating the control plane from the user plane, to ensure it can live alongside OFDM and future waveforms. Despite skepticism about the impact of OCUDU and Cohere on the RAN market, Rondeau is encouraged by the feedback from smaller companies and some recognizable names. The involvement of Qualcomm, a 5G patent holder, further strengthens the project's prospects. However, the real challenge lies in convincing the big vendors to shift from their proprietary technologies to OCUDU. In my opinion, the DoD's decision to back Cohere Technologies is a significant development that could potentially reshape the mobile industry. It raises the question of whether the incumbents will be able to adapt to the changing landscape or if the open-source approach will prevail. The future of mobile technology is at stake, and the outcome of this battle could have far-reaching implications for the industry.
